Emerging Property Markets
Emerging property market trends
Paul Beasley looks into emerging property market trends and offers essential buying advice for property investors
How times change. Just a decade ago, those buying property overseas were almost certainly heading to Spain, France, Italy or Florida, but these days the choice is much wider. In fact, changing trends in the emerging property markets now offer so many opportunities that those new to the international property ladder could easily lose their footing completely.
However, one down side to emerging property markets is that they, almost by definition, do not yet offer the transparency enjoyed by established property markets (not that these are immune to corruption, of course) or indeed the governmental will or wherewithal to collect property sale data in a systematic way, from which reliable average prices can be derived. Therefore, we've had to make use of whatever information we can find to provide such data on the newest emerging property markets – and, in several cases, this should be taken as a general guide, not gospel.
Talking of definitions, for how long can an 'emerging' property market be considered as such? Surely, one could argue, Bulgaria has now fully emerged after three-plus years of headline-grabbing in the property media. Isn't it, in fact, an established destination now? Well, no, not really, because the term 'emerging market' refers to the underlying economic conditions that make property such an attractive investment. When these conditions have stabilised, and price growth slows to a less spectacular level, a destination can be considered to have fully emerged. Bulgaria, incidentally, is still going strong, as are the Baltic States – three of the more established emerging markets.
Indeed, some emerging property markets effectively operate as a regional vanguard, proving to a potentially sceptical audience that a property investment and a holiday home market can actually work in a certain area. Dubai, for example, has pioneered property investment in the Middle East, and now a plethora of other emirates and Gulf States are following in its wake. In South Africa, Brazil is now breaking through – and perhaps as a result it will drag Chile and Peru on its coat-tails and out into the property spotlight. In Africa, Cape Verde and Morocco are beginning to attract more property buyers, but is this just the tip of the African property investment iceberg?
No one really knows, of course, but a big part of succeeding in emerging property market investment is building a dependable body of knowledge and making informed choices, rather than spinning the roulette wheel and hoping for riches. Research is an essential undertaking – and this includes researching your own property intentions and goals.
Yet, the ultimate answer to where you should buy depends not only on your buying power but on your priorities. Broadly speaking, there are five main types of buyer, recognisable by their priorities: 1. A permanent residence; 2. A second home for own use only; 3. A second home with rental potential; 4. A buy-to-let property; and 5. Capital appreciation. If you're making a permanent move, ask yourself if the culture, climate and facilities in your short-listed destinations will genuinely suit you. Also, consider what type of property would fit the bill – are you absolutely certain that you want a period property that's great for a two-week getaway but positively painful to live in and maintain long term, or would a newer property make your new life so much easier to enjoy?
If, instead, you are looking for a second home with rental potential, will buying cheaply mean renting it out cheaply? The standard advice here is don't be lured into a false
economy: buying cheaply could offer less value for money in terms of how much rental revenue you can realise. Also, consider that if you plan to rent out a property overseas but not use it yourself, chances are you'll hire the services of a management agency – which will have an obvious impact on your cash flow. If you are indeed planning to combine a second home with rental potential, will a period property persuade more people to rent it, or is a new villa and pool much better bait for a family vacation?
And let's not forget how numbers on the thermometer can also impact upon your plan to holiday in or rent out a property overseas. Whilst Bulgaria's frosty winters work wonders up in the ski resorts, the chilly springs, autumns and winters down on the coast will significantly curtail your rental revenue or curl your own toes when you holiday outside the short peak season.
Buying cheaply in a relatively new and emerging property market could clearly deliver big capital appreciation gains if and when prices begin to catch up with other parts of the world, but how much of a risk are you prepared to take? As a rule of thumb, emerging markets mean buying a similar number of bricks for a smaller number of notes than in the established locations – and the possibility of selling it on for a tidy profit some way down the road, but what you're not getting is precisely the tried and tested 'security' offered by an established destination. If buying in or near a city, it certainly helps if price rises aren't left solely to expat arrivals seeking accommodation. As long as the country's own domestic property market matures, thereby driving up the average property price, it should take the value of your investment with it.
Okay, so you've found yourself a cheap property, but if it's for your own use will you pay out a small fortune flying out to stay in it or can you get there with undue hassle on
frequent low-cost flights? Money, moreover, isn't the only factor here. For would-be second home owners, ask yourself how often you plan to use the property – and for how long. Frequent long weekends demand a flight of no more than three hours. After all, you don't want to lose one whole day out of every four-day trip stuck in transit.
If your plans are for holidays of several weeks at a time, flying further isn't such an issue. Indeed, hotspots such as Brazil now become more practical possibilities. And if you're prepared to do it, chances are there are enough like-minded Brits out there to follow in your vapour trail and rent your holiday home, and if not Brits then perhaps Americans or, on the Baltic coast, Russians.
If, on the other hand, you don't plan to use the property at all, as long as there is a pool of potential renters within striking distance and you find a way to publicise the virtues of your property effectively, any emerging market could be high up the list of options.
For the investor looking for pure capital appreciation, the flying time from countries full of habitual holidaymakers doesn't necessarily matter, although property price rises often follow the opening of a new low-cost air route like day follows night.
Ensure, finally, that you don't fall into the trap of assuming just because a property market is considered to be 'emerging' you are guaranteed to make money. It's not that simple. And neither are all emerging markets created equal. Good luck in your search.
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Article published 2 July 2007


