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Polish property in political upheaval?
The Polish property market has been thriving and Polish property prices have grown at an exponential rate. Experts have been tipping Polish property as this year’s hottest European investment.
However, recently it has seemed as though the future of the Polish property market might be hanging in the balance. Reports of bitter arguments between the Polish Prime Minister, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, and his radical coalition partners, the Self-Defence Part and the Nationalist League of Polish families, have been circling the global press. As a price for supporting Kaczynski, the two parties requested that he accede to a number of demands, including introducing the death penalty, completely banning abortions and ensuring that Poland distanced itself from the European Union.
The eventual result of these disagreements has been the announcement of a general election in Poland – but early predictions indicate that the vote could go either way. If the radicals end up in power, what effect will this have on the Polish property market?
According to Emma Holified of Property Frontiers, Polish property owners need not panic quite yet. "Although there is an element of uncertainty as to the future of the Polish government, it is unlikely that this will impact on the Polish property market in an especially drastic or marked way," she says. "Admittedly, an unsettled political situation will create a slight aura of uncertainty, as future policies and guidelines are unknown and this may deter a small fraction of investors. However, it must be remembered that any new government is highly unlikely to jeopardise the prosperity of its country, and in this way active encouragement of FDI should continue.
"As a result, the Polish property market should not be dramatically hindered, especially not over the long term. It must also be remembered that many Poles now seek employment within the EU and are sending their earnings back home for investment, which is again bolstering the market.
"Finally, despite the recent political squabbles, Poland's vibrant economic growth has been maintained. Economic growth is now at around 6 per cent, unemployment is falling, and there are strong exports and low inflation. This should therefore encourage investors who may fear that the economy will be adversely affected.
Other expert views seem to support those of Holifield. She points out that the 2006 study of potential capital appreciation over the next ten years, conducted on behalf of Channel Four's A Place in the Sun, found that Polish property could yield returns of 393 per cent over that time. Polish property was also identified by the 2006 Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe report released by the Urban Land Institute and PriceWaterhouseCooper as promising the largest increase in residential sales of anywhere in Europe.
Polish property prices are also expected to be favourably influenced by the spreading construction boom in the country, a recent increase in the availability of credit facilities and Poland's joint hosting (with the Ukraine) of the UEFA 2012 soccer tournament.
For those interested in attempting to capitalise on these favourable signs, Property Frontiers is currently marketing the Bretowska Brama development in the vibrant Polish city of Gdansk. Apartments range from one to three bedrooms, and facilities include a gym, a spa and a lake view. Prices start at £52,000.
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Article first published 16th August 2007


